After a tough start to 2022, Citi explores what may lie ahead for investors, highlighting quality and resilience in portfolios
NEW YORK, June 09, 2022–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Citi Global Wealth Investments today released its Mid-Year Outlook 2022 report: Investing in the afterglow of a boom. This biannual report sets out Citi’s outlook on rapid developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics.
The first half of 2022 has been especially challenging for investors, leading to increased uncertainty and concern. The global economy has endured a series of shocks over the last few years as COVID shutdowns, unprecedented stimulus, supply chain seize-ups and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have all created significant challenges. The most obvious result of these shocks is inflation, even as the economy slows and reduced stimulus hits consumer spending. Citi believes the worst of U.S. consumer price inflation has already passed, with a decline to around 3.5% likely in 2023.
“Across developed economies, consumer prices have been rising faster than they have in decades. In response, policymakers are withdrawing the fiscal and monetary boost they provided when COVID struck,” said David Bailin, Chief Investment Officer and Global Head of Investments for Citi Global Wealth. “The U.S. Federal Reserve is leading the way, signaling some of the biggest annual interest rate rises in its history. We think that the Fed’s actions will determine if there is going to be a recession or sustained growth. The economy can stand higher rates, but not an abrupt withdrawal of liquidity.”
“Inaction on the part of investors is like market timing. It rarely works. We believe that a fully invested portfolio has the potential to improve outcomes across difficult macro environments, like the one facing investors now,” continued Bailin.
Beat the “cash thief’
For holders of cash, the repercussions of inflation are painful. Negative real interest rates are akin to a “cash thief,” who silently steals purchasing power year after year. Therefore, Citi Global Wealth warns that investors sitting on excess cash will likely be left poorer over time.
Citi Global Wealth thinks bonds are back
The recent rise in interest rates is good news for investors with too much cash. U.S. Treasury yields have doubled across all maturities in the past year. With this, fixed income has become a relevant asset class for many types of investor objectives.
Citi Global Wealth believes that bonds at today’s interest rate levels have the potential to add both income and diversification to portfolios. Municipal bonds, U.S. investment grade …….